The Russell Group of 24 leading UK universities says that although the number of EU academics working in the UK increased by 4% in 2017/18, this was the lowest level of growth for more than a decade.

The slowing of growth appears to have started in 2014/15, when year-on-year growth dropped to 8% compared to 12% in 2013/14.

Whilst uncertainty around the UK’s future relationship with the EU may have started to impact on the decision making of EU academics, it is important to note that growth in UK and non-EU academics also slowed between 2013/14 and 2015/16, so there are likely to have been other factors at play.

What is interesting is that between 2015/16 and 2017/18, whilst growth in EU academics continued to fall (from 7% year-on-year growth to 4%), growth in non-EU and UK academics increased, suggesting that once the promised referendum became a reality, it had a specific impact on EU academics.

Between 2015/16 and 2016/17 (latest available data for leavers) there was an 11% rise in the number of EU academics leaving Russell Group universities (with 4,280 leaving in 2016/17 compared to 3,865 in 2015/16).

This increase in turnover of EU academics is especially striking given that over the same period, the number of non-EU and UK academics leaving Russell Group universities increased by just 4% and 5% respectively.

This contrasts with the growth rate of new academic starters, which was far lower than the growth of leavers in the case of EU academics, and roughly equivalent between different nationalities (5% UK, 3% EU, 3% non-EU).

Some disciplines have been hit harder than others by the increase in EU academics choosing to leave.

In 2016/17, EU academics at Russell Group universities made up a disproportionately high percentage of staff leaving posts in a number of strategically important subjects such as biosciences, physics, chemistry and engineering.

For example, EU nationals represented 27% of academics working in chemistry departments in 2016/17, but a much higher proportion, 36%, of academics who left chemistry posts that year.

Between 2016/17 and 2017/18, the proportion of new EU academics recruited by Russell Group from overseas fell from 48% to 43%, meaning a greater proportion of the EU nationals recruited to academic positions last year were already based in the UK.

This trend is true for all UK universities, suggesting the sector may be finding it increasingly difficult to attract EU academics from abroad, relying instead on recruiting those graduating from UK universities or academics that have recently left posts in the UK.

Unless trends in EU academic flows over recent years are reversed, it is only a matter of time before the number of EU academics leaving our universities exceeds the number arriving.

The Government has introduced the Settlement Scheme for EU nationals already in the UK, which is a welcome first step.

However, the rights afforded to those registering under the scheme have not yet been enshrined in UK law.

Doing so as soon as possible is essential to provide certainty for EU academics and others, says the Group, adding that the obvious legislative vehicle for this is the Immigration and Social Security Co-ordination (EU Withdrawal) Bill currently before Parliament. This should be amended to put the rights of those covered by the Settlement Scheme on a legal footing.