The Q3 semiconductor market totaled $114 billion, up 11% from Q2 says WSTS.

The Q3 growth was the highest since 11.6% in 3Q16. The strong Q3 growth follows a 2.1% decline in Q2 versus Q1.
The second quarter is normally a healthy growth quarter, averaging 4% over the last eight years and the strong Q3 market growth is due to OEMs catching up on demand. Key markets for semiconductors have remained relatively strong despite the pandemic.
The revenue of the top semiconductor companies reflects the strong Q3. The combined revenue growth of the top 14 companies was 10% in Q3 versus Q2.

Intel and SK Hynix were exceptions, with revenue down 7.1% and 5.6% respectively.
Seven of the companies saw revenue increases of over 20%. AMD had the strongest growth, up 45%, leading the company to claim the number 12 ranking.
AMD’s growth was due to strong demand for PC, gaming, and data center products.
MediaTek revenue increased 44%, driven by increased market share in smartphones overall and strong 5G growth.

The outlook for Q4 is mixed. Normally the Q4 market is flat to down from the third quarter. Of the ten companies providing guidance, five expect Q4 revenues to increase over Q3 and five expect revenues to decline.
STMicroelectronics is the most optimistic with 12.2% guidance and expected growth in all its product lines except RF communications.
Micron Technology is the most pessimistic, projecting a 14.1% revenue decline due to weakness in demand in the enterprise segment.
Intel is guiding for a 5.1% revenue decline due weakness in data center demand.

Memory companies (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron and Kioxia) had modest combined Q3 revenue growth of 4%.
The non-memory companies saw revenues increase 14%. Intel, at $18.3 billion in revenue, skews the combined results of the top 10 non-memory companies. Excluding Intel, the non-memory companies had combined Q3 revenue growth of 28%. Combined guidance for 4Q20 revenue growth is flat for the non-memory companies. Excluding Intel, the combined growth is 3%.
The global economy is expected to bounce back in 2021 from a severe decline in 2020. Forecasts in the last month call for GDP to recover from a decline of 4% to 6% in 2020 to growth of 5% to 6% in 2021.
Q3 data from IDC on two key semiconductor applications show an improving trend. PC units had a decline of 10% in 1Q20 versus a year earlier. The PC market has show strong growth since then, reaching 15% year-to-year in Q3. Smartphones had double-digit year-to-year declines in the first three quarters of 2020. Q3  recovered to only a 1% year-to-year decline. Smartphones should return to positive year-to-year growth in Q4.

Forecasts for the 2021 semiconductor market range from 4.2% from the Cowan LRA Model to 14% from Semiconductor Intelligence.
The Cowan LRA Model is based on historical trends and does not include assumptions for the future.
The 14% SI forecast is based on the recent results and expectations of major semiconductor companies, expected strong global GDP growth in 2020, a strong PC market, and a recovering smartphone market.