TrendForce is expecting that lower electronic product shipments will bring about a drop in memory demand.

However, DRAM and NAND ASPs are expected to maintain their growth in 1Q20 and 2Q20 primarily because of relatively low client inventory levels.

Provided that the current ASP uptrend continues, clients may have a strong incentive to raise their stock of memory products.

TrendForce believes the challenge will come in 3Q20, when sluggish consumer end product demand will spur inventory reduction efforts, so weakening client-side memory procurement and resulting in limited ASP growth.

The currently rising NAND ASPs may take a turn downwards.  As structural changes start to take place on the demand side, memory purchasers will be less willing to raise inventory levels from the end of 2Q20 onwards, in turn affecting the price trend of memory products in 2H20.

With DRAM, the considerable pre-existing gap between supply and demand is expected to persist even if demand drops. Thus, 2H20 DRAM prices will, at worst, exhibit limited growth rather than a decline.

Unlike DRAM, there does not exist a similarly considerable shortage in the NAND market, while client-side demand has started showing hints of downturn for 2Q20. If demand continues to fall, NAND ASPs may be expected to take a dive in 2H20.