HBM demand to double by 2024, says TrendForce

Author: EIS Release Date: Aug 21, 2023

Demand for HBM bits will double by 2024, says TrendForce, but the supply and implementation of TSV equipment required for the expansion will delay most of the required increase in capacity nuntil Q2 2024.

 

The 2022+HBM market had sufficient supply. However, an explosive surge in AI demand in 2023 has prompted clients to place advance orders, stretching suppliers to their capacity limits. Looking ahead to 2024, TrendForce forecasts that due to aggressive expansion by suppliers, the HBM sufficiency ratio will rise from -2.4% to 0.6% in 2024.

 

TrendForce believes that the primary demand is shifting from HBM2e to HBM3 in 2023, with an anticipated demand ratio of approximately 50% and 39%, respectively.

 

 

As an increasing number of chips adopting HBM3 hit the market, demand in 2024 will heavily lean toward HBM3 and eclipse HBM2e with a projected share of 60%. This expected surge—coupled with a higher ASP—is likely to trigger a significant increase in HBM revenue next year.

 

 

 

Hynix currently holds the lead in HBM3 production, serving as the principal supplier for NVIDIA’s server GPUs.

 

Samsung, on the other hand, is focusing on satisfying orders from other cloud service providers (CSPs). The gap in market share between Samsung and Hynix is expected to narrow significantly this year due to an increasing number of orders for Samsung from CSPs.

 

Both firms are predicted to command similar shares in the HBM market sometime between 2023 to 2024—collectively occupying around 95%.

 

 

 

Given HBM’s high-profit nature and a unit price far exceeding other types of DRAM products, suppliers aim to incrementally reduce prices to stimulate customer demand, leading to a price decline for HBM2e and HBM2 in 2023.