With Q3 only showing a 0.1% y-o-y decrease to 302.8 million units, the smartphone market is set for a rise, says IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker.

“We are seeing a strong ramp up of shipments in emerging markets by vendors like Xiaomi and Transsion,” says IDC’s  Nabila Popal, “while this is a good sign of approaching recovery, vendors must keep a close eye on sell-through to avoid falling into excess inventory again.”

China saw shipments fall 6.3% year over year in 3Q23, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of decline.

Climbing youth unemployment, the ongoing real estate crisis, and deflation have significantly damped consumer spending and broader macroeconomic environment in China.

Elsewhere, shipments in Europe, Japan, and the U.S. declined 8.6%, 5.3%, and 1.1% respectively. But emerging markets like the Middle East and Africa (MEA), Latin America (LA), and Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan and China) saw 3Q23 shipment growth of 18.1%, 8.2%, and 1.3% respectively.