Silicon wafer sales could either dip if coronavirus uncertainty continues or rebound in Q2 if chip manufacturers re-stock, says SEMI’s Silicon Wafer Market Monitor.

The Monitor tracks wafer shipment dynamics including wafer shipments, supply and demand shifts, suppliers’ dynamics, and pricing trends and forecasts.

To hedge their bets in Q2, chipmakers are expected to increase silicon wafer orders to build up safety stock to meet future demand – a move that should soften any downward impact on sales for the quarter.

If the pandemic erodes semiconductor demand well into H2, silicon wafer shipments growth could continue through  before dipping in the third quarter. In this downbeat scenario, 300mm silicon wafer shipments in 2020 would be flat or see a slight decline despite a sizable second quarter jump, and 200mm and 150mm shipments would drop by 5 percent and 13 percent, respectively.

But if a robust industry recovery begins in the second half of 2020, the second quarter inventory buildup will help drive silicon wafer shipment growth. That uptrend will continue through the rest of 2020 as expectations rise that pent-up demand will drive a chip industry rebound.

The pandemic extended a decline in total silicon wafer area that began after their October 2018 peak. Last year overall wafer shipments dropped 6.9% compared to 2018 after managing just 0.4% growth from 2017 to 2019.

The 2019 declines in both silicon wafer shipments and revenue had given way to optimism for 2020 with rising expectations for normalising inventory levels, memory market improvements, data centre market growth and the 5G market takeoff.