Global light vehicle sales are forecast to be down 22% to 70.3 million units this year, says IHS Markit.Though most factories in China are back to work, IHS forecasters caution that it will take time for plants to fully recover.

Mainland China is expected to have a sales decline of more than 15.5% y-o-y,  to 21 million units, with concerns on secondary impacts from the global contagion, which could further disrupt the recovery.

12 cities have introduced incentives to spur sales, including New Energy Vehicle subsidies, scrappage incentives and increased license plate quotas.The US light vehicle market is expected to decline 26.6% from 2019 levels to 12.5 million units this year.

US production across 14 states accounts for 66% of total North American light vehicle production with 46,000 vehicles produced every day before the outbreak.

Concern surrounds the state-by-state ending of stay-at-home orders that could result in a patchwork of factories returning to work.

Due to the tightly integrated supply chain across the US and throughout North America, restarting of vehicle assembly requires coordination across the states along with neighboring Canada and Mexico.

Europe will have  a 24.9%  drop in light vehicle sales to 13.6 million units with the recovery tied to the lockdown restrictions. Markets to watch for the grassroots of recovery include Germany, Denmark, Austria and the Czech Republic.

Globally, the biggest disruption is expected to hit in the first half of the year, with output in Q1 expected to be down by 24% y-o-y  and in Q2 by 44% with H2 production down 8%.