The issue of space debris is one of ever-increasing importance, and the European Space Agency (ESA) has summarised the findings of a major report into this area.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) recently published its first report on the economic cost of space debris.

It’s entitled Space sustainability – The economics of space debris in perspective, and includes research from a number of sources, including data and analysis from ESA’s Space Debris Office.

The key findings are to be addressed by the ESA’s own Space Safety Programme, says the agency.

Growing problem

First, it highlights that it is a growing problem (pictured). Specifically, that the number of satellites in orbit will significantly increase with the launch of ‘mega-constellations’ for satellite broadband.

As these constellations can comprise thousands of satellites, the risk of collisions and thus more space debris increases.

“Just one collision or explosion in space creates thousands of small, fast-moving small shards of debris able to damage or destroy a functioning satellite. For example, in 2007, the intentional destruction of the FengYun-1C satellite doubled the amount of debris at an altitude of about 800 km, leading to a 30% increase in the total population of debris at that time.”

Space debris expense

There is also the economic expense of space debris. Protecting satellites from space debris is expensive, says the ESA, beginning with design measures, the need for surveillance and tracking, moving operational satellites out of harm’s way and even replacing missions altogether.

The report states “the main risks and costs lie in the future, if the generation of debris spins out of control and renders certain orbits unusable for human activities.”

For satellites in geostationary orbit, the OECD reports that such costs amount to an estimated 5–10% of the total mission costs, which could be hundreds of millions of dollars. In low Earth orbits, the relative costs per mission could be even higher than 5–10%.

However, the cost of inaction would be far greater. Enough debris in orbit could ultimately lead to the ‘Kessler syndrome’ in which collisions cascade, leading to more and more self-generating collisions, and what the OECD describes as “an ecological tipping point that may render certain orbits unusable.”

Socio-economic impacts

The report also highlights the the threat to “unique applications and functionalities” such as the internet, weather and communication services.

“The socio-economic impacts of the Kessler syndrome would be severe. Important space applications could be lost, such as weather forecasting, climate monitoring, earth sciences and space-based communications. The inability to use certain orbits would have wide-reaching and significant consequences.”